WINNIPEG: Having been involved in the aviation industry for a long time, I cannot even imagine the fate that awaits this industry in the Corona-ravaged world.
I have watched the growth of this industry in my native India from close quarters and I cannot resist the temptation of putting down my random thoughts here.
Flights have been suspended by the government. Airlines have been told not to take any bookings, even for flights post-May 4.
Flight restrictions in India will last until at least June. Or even July. But even after that, it will take up to a year for flights to get back to somewhat close to (within 70-80 percent ) earlier levels of activity. It will likely not go back to 100 percent for a couple of years, until a vaccine is found and fear of the virus is completely eradicated.
The airline industry in India – the existing players – is in an unimaginable crisis. India is the only country where flights are completely grounded, yet there is no government financial aid package. With high costs and taxes and low yields, margins are thin at the best of times. Advance sales revenues are therefore the lifeblood of the industry.
With zero revenues and no financial support, many or majority of airlines will simply not survive if this continues the way it is, putting three million jobs in India at risk, directly and indirectly.
However, Indigo and Vistara (and some international airlines) have opened bookings for flights to/from India starting June 1. The others have not yet opened international at all.
Flights are expected to resume gradually, in phases. However they will not operate to/from, or between red zone cities. So expect no flights to/from, and between Delhi and Bombay, for example, if both are still in the red zone once flights resume.
Between non-red zone cities once the ban is lifted, flights may operate as long as state and central governments agree to remove the lockdown to allow access to airports.
What remains unchanged? No one can enter India from abroad, not even Indian citizens or OCIs stuck abroad. There were hopes that there may be some relaxation for Indian citizens stuck abroad after May 4, but that is starting to look increasingly unlikely now.
But most countries (India still being a notable exception) are allowing their own citizens to enter. Some countries are still allowing foreigners to enter, including the UK which still seems to be in a complete lockdown in terms of flight restrictions (there aren’t any).
Accordingly, foreigners and Indians can still leave India if they want, on the special chartered and repatriation flights being arranged by embassies and sometimes foreign companies. But repatriation flights are not free. They are expensive – up to US$3,000 for one way to the US.
One wonders why the aviation industry is still treated as a discretionary or luxury spend industry in India, and not as an essential infrastructure industry. Paradoxically, airports in India are considered essential infrastructure. This is not fair.
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